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Blog Deep Read · 38 · johnhawks.net

John Hawks
More people, faster evolution, and a human past that was never a tree but a braided stream

John Hawks · blog johnhawks.net (founded 2004, long known as John Hawks weblog) · American paleoanthropologist, professor of anthropology at the University of Wisconsin–Madison, and a core member of the team studying Homo naledi from South Africa's Rising Star cave · Still active: latest post 27 September 2026 · Corpus: by his own 2022 count the archive held more than 4,700 posts, about 2.5 million words; across two platform moves since then he culled it by hand, and 280 posts are public today (October 2004 to September 2026; two are paid members' briefings, the rest free) · Two turning points: in 2022 he moved from a self-hosted site to Ghost and switched to long posts every two weeks plus email; in 2025 he moved again, to Substack · How posts were chosen: he has no "best of" page, so this page parsed all 280 posts and counted internal links (the most cross-referenced across years is the 2023 Ghostbusters of human origins, cited as late as 2026), then weighed Substack comments and likes (the 2026 "80-20 mixture" post leads the site with 26 comments and 233 likes) · This page draws on 20 posts read in full, from April 2005 to August 2026: four from the earliest fifth of the blog's span (October 2004 to February 2009), and posts from both sides of each platform move

In the autumn of 2008, the British geneticist Steve Jones announced once again, in a public lecture, that human evolution had more or less stopped. Young people hardly die anymore, fewer children are born to older fathers, and the world's populations are melting into one. As far back as 1995 he had told the New York Times that natural selection "has to some extent been repealed." He had been saying it for more than a decade, and the press loved it every time.

An American paleoanthropologist answered on his blog. The title: "Human evolution stopping? Wrong, wrong, wrong."

His name is John Hawks, and he had a number: a hundred. A year earlier he and four collaborators had published a paper in PNAS that scanned the human genome for variants recently pushed up by natural selection. Their conclusion was the opposite of Jones's: over the last few tens of thousands of years, human adaptive evolution had not slowed down. It had sped up, by about a hundredfold.

Where does the hundred come from? The core argument fits on a napkin. At the recent rate they measured, roughly half a new selected variant appears every year. If that rate had always held, then in the six million years since humans and chimpanzees parted (twelve million years of lineage, counting both sides) we should see about six million adaptive substitutions between the two species. But all the amino acid differences between humans and chimps add up to about 40,000, and perhaps a third of those were selected. The books don't balance. The only explanation left is that the fast rate is new.

Our evolution has recently accelerated by around 100-fold. And that's exactly what we would expect from the enormous growth of our population.Our new paper on why human evolution accelerated, 2007-12-12

Why should population size speed up evolution? Because useful mutations are vanishingly rare, and every new person is born carrying new ones. In 2026 he put it more memorably: "One hundred times more people is like buying a hundred times more lottery tickets." Farming, cities and livestock brought new diseases and new foods, which gave selection a direction; a booming population supplied more raw mutations. Multiply the two and you get acceleration.

The idea began with a polite wall. As a graduate student he burst into the office of the archaeologist Henry Wright: "Agriculture should have sped up human evolution!" Wright took a beat. "Well, yes. That makes sense. But how can you show it?" Hawks spent a decade answering, then waited nearly twenty years more. In 2026, David Reich's group used more than 15,000 ancient genomes to find over 400 signals of positive selection in western Eurasia over the past 10,000 years, and they too read the pattern as acceleration.

But "more people" is only half of this mind. The other half is "people connected to people." Hawks's master's adviser was Milford Wolpoff, standard-bearer of the multiregional model, who argued for a lifetime that gene flow among ancient human populations never stopped. Hawks carried that instinct until ancient DNA testified for it: in 2010 the Neandertal genome showed that most living people carry a little Neandertal DNA. So human history, he says, is not a tree ("A tree will never admit to exchanging sap between its branches") but a braided stream, with channels that split, rejoin and split again. In his words: "It's mixing all the way back."

By 2026 the stream had a sharper outline. Several teams, using different methods, independently found roughly the same answer: all living humans descend from a merger of two ancient populations about 300,000 years ago, about 80 percent from one and 20 percent from the other, and those two had separated around 1.5 million years ago. In 2017 Hawks had noticed a puzzling "wave" in genomic data. It now looks like the shadow of that merger.

Put the two halves together and you have the root question he has returned to for twenty years: human evolution is a history of how many people there were and how they were connected. More people, faster evolution. Tighter connections, and the family tree stops looking like a tree. He applies the same principle to science itself: open the fossil data, open the review process, write for everyone. Knowledge, in his view, also grows faster with more people taking part and more ties between them.

He may be wrong in places. He is a coauthor of the claim that Homo naledi buried its dead, a conclusion his colleagues still dispute, and he admits that his taste for mixture is a philosophical leaning. But he lays every step of his reasoning out in public, where anyone can take it apart line by line.